The meeting of the interdepartmental work group on the formation of forecasts of socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan was held in the Ministry of Economy of Tatarstan

Today the Ministry of Economy had a meting of the interdepartmental working group on the formation of forecasts of socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan, chaired by the Deputy Minister of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan - Mr. Oleg Pelevin. The meeting was attended by representatives of the republican ministries and committees.

The meeting addressed issues on the formation of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan in the 2018-2020 based on the scenario of development of the Russian economy, developed by the Ministry of Economy of Russia and approved at a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation on April 13 of this year.

The scenario conditions for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation include:

-the slowdown in global economic growth (from 3.2% in 2016, up 2.8% to 2020);

-maintaining of financial and economic sanctions against the Russian economy, as well as response measures throughout the forecast period;

-lower prices for oil Urals up to 40 USD per barrel by the end of this year due to the completion of the agreement on freezing oil production in June this year.

Forecast of indicators of Russia's macro-development was developed, consisting of three main options - base, target and conservative.

The base variant describes the development of the Russian economy while preserving the conservative trends in external factors at maintaining a conservative fiscal policy, including social obligations of the state. According to the version in the current year, the GDP growth is forecasted at the level of 2 percent, with the slowdown in subsequent years up to 1.5%.

The baseline forecast is proposed to be used for development of parameters of the federal budget to 2018-2020.

The initial conditions for forecast development on basic option:

-growth dynamics of prices for Urals oil ranged from 40.8 to 42.4 USD. USD/barrel;

-growth of the USD exchange rate:  from 69.8 RUB in 2018 to 72.7 RUB in 2020;

-inflation is forecasted at the end of the year at a rate of 104% throughout the forecast period;

-the annual growth in electricity tariffs (in 2018 - by 4.8% in 2019 - by 8.8% in 2020- by 3.6%); natural gas (in 2018 (July) - by 3.4%, 2019 (July)-by 3.1% in 2020 (July) - by 3.0%). Annual indexation on aggregate payment for utility services will be 4%.

Target scenario forecast is focused at creation of conditions for intensification of investment activity (including in the mining industries), expects some growth in oil production due to introduction of new advanced technologies and launching new oil fields.  In this scenario, the external conditions remain at the level of the basic option. The Russian economy is expected to show a sustainable growth: in 2018-101.7%, 2019-102.5% in 2020-103.1%.

The conservative forecast option contains a more substantial slowdown in global economic growth that will be associated with the "hard landing" of China's economy. In these circumstances, it is expected that the price for Urals oil will drop to level 35 USD per barrel by the end of this year and remain at that level until the end of the forecast period.

The participants of the meeting also discussed issues on information-analytical system “Socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan” within a medium-term forecasting and conduct in June this year visiting meetings of the Working Group on the review of the projections of the municipalities and the leading enterprises of the Republic.