In 2020-2024 Tatarstan economy will grow by 2-3, 3% per year
The key tasks for the forecast period will be the implementation of major investment projects, support for agricultural producers, the development of small and medium-sized businesses, e-commerce and the creation of new jobs.
Today, the Cabinet of Ministers held a meeting in the Government House devoted to the consideration of the forecast of social and economic development of Tatarstan for 2020-2024, as well as the consolidated budget for the three-year period.
Minister of economy of Tatarstan Farid Abdulganiev made a report on the current economic situation and forecasts of its development.
The forecast of Tatarstan economy development was formed in accordance with the scenario conditions of the Russian economy development, taking into account the implementation of national projects, data of sectoral ministries, forecasts of municipalities and leading enterprises of the republic.
"The volume of gross regional product at the end of 2019 will reach 2 trillion 552.5 billion rubles at a growth rate of 101.3%. In 2020-2024, GRP growth is projected in the range of 102-103. 3%. Growth, first of all, will be provided by the increase in production volumes in the manufacturing industries and the implementation of major investment projects," Farid Abdulganiev said.
Among the important for the economy called the investment projects of JSC "TANECO", JSC "TAIF-NK", PSC "Nizhnekamskneftekhim", PSC "Kazanorgsintez", tire complex MC "Tatneft-Neftekhim", PSC "KAMAZ", KAZ them. After S. P. Gorbunov – branch of JSC "Tupolev", PSC "Kazan helicopter plant" and others. Taking into account the planned commissioning of capacities, the index of industrial production in 2020-2024 is projected at the level of 101.3-103.8%, with investment growth rates of 101.2 – 101.9%.
The economic growth of the republic will be ensured by further effective development of special economic zones, territories of advanced economic development, industrial sites, industrial parks, technoparks and business incubators.
In the forecast period, it is planned to increase the number of infrastructure facilities to support small and medium-sized businesses to 100, the number of SEZs will increase to three. This year, the Ministry of economy of Tatarstan has prepared an application for the creation of industrial-production type SEZ "AlmA". By 2025, the volume of investments of its anchor residents will reach 67.9 billion rubles, more than 1.4 thousand new jobs will be created.
The key task for the forecast period will be the development of small and medium-sized businesses. The turnover of SMEs in 2024 will be about 1.7 trillion rubles.
The growth rate of the construction complex, taking into account the increase in the volume of housing and infrastructure construction within the framework of national projects, will amount to 100.2-103.5%.
Retail trade turnover will grow at the level of 101-102.5%. Electronic commerce will take an increasing share.
Unemployment in the republic will be at a relatively low level: in the forecast period, the share of the unemployed in the labor force will not exceed 0.65%. Real wage growth based on productivity growth is expected throughout the forecast period.
"In General, the forecast of socio-economic development of Tatarstan corresponds to the basic scenario of the Strategy - 2030, according to which the gross regional product in 2030 should exceed 5 trillion rubles," said the minister in conclusion of his speech.
Marat Safiullin, Director of SBI "Center for advanced economic research":
"Despite the very difficult foreign economic conditions and currency volatility, the forecast of social and economic development of Tatarstan for the period up to 2024 is quite reliable.
The defining parameters, first of all, of course, investments (since they determine the dynamics and nature of the gross regional product and industrial production) show a positive trend. This allows us to hope that the creative pace and nature of development will continue in the future. What is more important, construction and retail trade demonstrate rather high investment activity.
An important social indicator is the dynamics of wages. In the forecast, wages show dynamics much higher than economic growth. This suggests that the debts that we had, due to the backlog of past years, are now returning thanks to economic development."
Marat Galeev, Chairman Of the Committee of the state Council of the Republic of Tatarstan on economy, investments and entrepreneurship:
"The calculation in the forecast is made on the sustainable socio-economic situation of the Republic of Tatarstan, which will allow to maintain the growth dynamics. If we take world oil prices, the approach to the forecast is quite sober.
The strategy of deepening oil refining, laid down more than 20 years ago, is being persistently implemented. Every year we receive new capacities that deepen the share of processing. This strategy allows us to count on the growth of the gross product, which is mainly due to the structural improvement of the petrochemical industry.
Also, now we can say that the infrastructure for the development of advanced business sectors in the form of SEZs, PSEDA and industrial sites has been created in Tatarstan. This gives us confidence that there are opportunities for business development. Infrastructure institutions for business development have been created.
At the same time, I see the problem areas that we need to work on. In particular, a significant increase in housing construction is expected. I am afraid that this forecast is not linked to income growth. Demand constraints may land this forecast a bit. If there is no significant increase in productivity, it will be difficult to raise wages. Both the federal and our government need to work more deeply on the program of labour productivity growth. We do not need to rely only on federal funding within the framework of the national project on labor productivity.
In agriculture, it is necessary to strengthen processing. If there is no processing in the form of competitive finished products, we will be a Republic that produces only raw materials".