Oleg Pelevin: “Economic activity growth trend is preserving in Russia”

Despite external negative factors, economic activity growth trend is preserving in Russia.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia in 2018, the growth of Russia's gross domestic product is expected to be at the level of 101.8%.

In January-August of the current year the gross regional product of the Republic of Tatarstan amounted to 1 trillion 540.6 billion rubles with a growth rate of 101.2%.

Growth rates in industry amounted to 101.3%, in agriculture - 100.1%, in construction - 98.6%, in retail trade - 105.7%.

This was announced today by the Deputy Minister of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan, Oleg Pelevin, at the Committee of the State Council of the Republic of Tatarstan on law and order on socio-economic development forecast for 2019-2024.

The forecast of socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan is based on the basic scenario of development of the Russian economy, which provide for the average annual price of “Urals’ oil in 2019 at $ 63.4 per barrel, by 2024 it is expected to decline to $ 53.5 per barrel.

At the same time, according to the forecast, the dollar rate will increase from 63.2 rubles in 2019 to 68 rubles in 2024.

Forecast indicators are formed on the basis of the data of sectoral ministries, forecasts of the development of municipal formations and leading enterprises (which form about 70% of industrial production of the republic).

In 2019-2024, economic growth is projected in the range of 102-103.6%, which exceeds the average Russian dynamics (in Russia - 101.4-103.3%).

The main contribution to the growth of economic activity will be provided by the planned increase in volumes in the processing industries.

In the current year, 4 new installations were introduced at TANECO: kerosene hydro-treatment with a capacity of 500 thousand tons per year, diesel fuel with a capacity of 1.6 million tons per year, naphtha and isomerization. It is planned to launch the ELOU-AVT-6 unit, which will allow increasing the volume of processed oil to 14 million tons. TAIF-NK Company is completing the project for construction of a Complex for the deep processing of heavy residues of an oil refinery. In June, the isoprene-monomer plant of Nizhnekamskneftekhim commissioned isobutylene production with a capacity of 160 thousand tons per year - this is the second of three projects under the program to increase the production of isoprene synthetic rubber to 330 thousand tons per year. By the end of the year it is planned to complete the construction of a modernized isoprene unit (the third project under the program). In 2019, Nizhnekamskneftekhim is planning to implement a project for construction of production of divinyl-styrene synthetic rubber in a periodic manner with a capacity of 60 thousand tons per year. The tire complex plans to implement projects to increase the production of SMC (solid metal cord) tires (by 300 thousand units per year at the Nizhnekamsk SMC tire factory, in 2019, by 2020 the production will be 1.9 million units) and Viatti tires (up to 5.9 million units per year at Nizhnekamskshina, in 2020).

The following is planned to be provided at Kazanorgsintez:

- increasing the production of own ethylene up to 654 thousand tons per year (due to the transition from the deficient ethane to the propane-butane fraction);

- and modernization of the polycarbonate plant, which will increase the production capacity to 100 thousand tons per year.

In general, by 2023, the volume of polymer production at the enterprise should grow to 1 million tons.

Nizhnekamskneftekhim plans the construction of a new EP-600 production and related facilities for processing of pyrolysis products, with commissioning of capacities in 2022.

In the machine-building complex of the republic, it is worth noting the completion of the construction of a cab skeleton plant and the launch of a fundamentally new model range of KAMAZ vehicles of the K5 generation of the trunk family planned by 2019.

In 2019 Hayer Company plans to launch a factory for the production of washing machines. In the future, it is planned to create factories for the production of kitchen appliances (electric and gas stoves, hobs, extractors, etc.).

In 2021, the release of the first modernized TU-160 aircraft is planned at the Kazan Aviation Plant named after S.P. Gorbunov - a branch of “Tupolev”, PAO (Public Joint-Stock Company) (in January 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Tupolev PAO signed a state contract for the creation of 10 aircraft).

In the energy industry, TAIF plans to build a 495 MW combined-cycle gas turbine unit at Nizhnekamskneftekhim (which includes two gas turbines with waste heat boilers and one steam turbine) by 2021.

Tatenergo is working on a project to modernize Zainskaya State District Power Plant.

Implementation of investment projects of the Network Company is being carried out systematically. In general, the growth of industrial production in comparable prices will be, according to the forecast, in 2019 - 103.3%, then 102.5-104.3% annually.

In agriculture, the volume of production is estimated at 263.3 billion rubles in 2018, an increase in comparable prices - by 1.9% (in 2017 - 105.2%).

Abnormally hot weather and a lack of precipitation affect the industry’s performance this year. An emergency situation was introduced in 17 municipal districts of the republic.

In the forecast period, the annual growth rate of agricultural products according to the sectoral state program is provided at the level of 101.9%.

In terms of processing of agricultural products, growth rates of production in the food industry are forecasted in the current and forecast period, on average, about 105%.

A number of significant investment projects are being implemented in the agro-industrial complex of the republic, including:

- construction of a modern elevator complex with a capacity of 150 thousand tons of one-time storage in Zainsk town (Agrosila AO (Joint-Stock Company) with commissioning in the current year;

- construction of dairy complexes in 12 municipal districts with launching in 2019-2021;

- modernization and expansion of production at the Kazan Dairy Plant with a capacity of 110 thousand tons per year (launch in 2019) and many others.

It is planned to build Agromir-Kazan, a wholesale distribution center for wholesale, storage and processing of agricultural products for 50 thousand tons, in \ Pestrechinskiy district (2019-2022).

This year, a pilot project for construction of an agro-industrial park is being implemented in Zainsk town.

In the forecast period, a moderate dynamics of the volume of contract work is expected - 100-101% in the construction complex of the republic.

In 2019, it is planned to commission 2 million 400 thousand square meters of housing with a gradual increase in the forecast period to 2 million 550 thousand square meters in view of the task set by the President of the country.

The trend of growth in retail trade turnover is observed in the consumer market of the republic (in January-August 2018, the growth rate in retail trade turnover was 105.7% in comparable prices to the corresponding period of 2017 (in Russia - 102.7%), including food products - 101.3%, non-food products - 109.7%).

At the end of the current year, the growth of commodity turnover, according to estimates, will amount to 104.5% with a simultaneous increase in the credit activity of the population.

In 2019-2024, the positive trend is expected to continue - the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 103-103.6%.

Investment activity is one of the key factors for ensuring high rates of economic growth.

Over the past years, the share of investments in the gross regional product of the republic is about 30%, which is much higher than the average Russian level (in 2017 in the Republic of Tatarstan - 30.1%, in the Russian Federation - 17.3%).

At the end of the current year, the volume of investments is estimated at 668.9 billion rubles, which is 31.2 billion rubles more than in 2017 (in comparable prices - 100.0%).

In the medium term, investment growth is projected at 100.5-102.1%.

Growth in investment in the forecast period will be provided through implementation of planned investment projects of large enterprises, as well as new residents of special economic zones and territories of advanced socio-economic development, as well as implementation of infrastructure projects of INNOKAMA Concept, approved at the federal level.

An effective tool for attracting investment is the creation of territories of advanced socio-economic development.

Today the republic already has such functioning territories in Naberezhnye Chelny, Chistopol, Zelenodolsk and Nizhnekamsk.

A draft decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on foundation of Mendeleevsk Territory of advanced socio-economic development is on approval by the federal authorities.

At TASED, “Naberezhnye Chelny” attracted 24 resident (3 companies are at the stage of obtaining the status of TOSED resident and entering into the register of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia).

They have already made 4.5 billion rubles of capital investments (excluding VAT) and created more than 2 thousand new jobs (2,230).

3 residents are registered at Nizhnekamsk TASED. In general, it is planned that the operation of four TASED will allow creating at least 17 thousand new permanent jobs for 10 years, attracting investments in the amount of more than 62 billion rubles (including 34.3 billion rubles of capital investments).

Special economic zones are continuing to develop actively:

- industrial production type "Alabuga", which already has 56 residents, 29 enterprises conduct industrial production activities.

- technology-innovative type “Innopolis”, where 75 companies are now residents, 9 partner companies operate.

The key task of the modern economy is to ensure development of small and medium-sized businesses.

According to the forecast, the turnover of small and medium enterprises will increase by 1.2 times to the level of 2018 - up to 1.5 trillion rubles.

Development of business support infrastructure (special economic zones, industrial parks, technology parks, industrial sites of municipal level) contributes to the development of small and medium-sized businesses. Even today, 10% of the total industrial output of the republic is produced by their residents.

In the forecast period, the average annual growth rate of products manufactured by residents of the business support infrastructure will be about 110% in current prices.

According to social indicators.

Unemployment is still at a relatively low level - 10.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed at the end of August this year.

In the forecast period, the unemployment rate of labor force will not exceed 0.7%.

The consumer price index in 2018 is estimated at 102.9% (by December 2017).

In 2019, an increase in the VAT rate (from 18% to 20%) will lead to a certain acceleration of inflation to 104.3%.

In the future, according to the scenario conditions, the consumer price index until 2024 is projected at a target level of 104%.

The growth rate of the wage fund is projected at 105.6-106.8%.

For the entire forecast period, real wage growth has been laid.

At the same time, labor productivity will grow at a faster pace.

The main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan up to 2024 correspond to the baseline scenario of the Strategy 2030, Oleg Pelevin noted.

Press Service of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan