Scenario conditions for development of the Russian economy in the medium term

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation published “Scenario conditions, the main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and projected changes in prices (tariffs) for goods and services of economic entities engaged in regulated activities in the infrastructure sector for 2020 and for the planning period 2021 and 2022”, approved at a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation on April 18 of the current year (http://economy.gov.ru/minec/about/structure/depmacro/2019042102).

According to the basic version of the forecast:

- the average annual price of Urals petrol in the current year is projected at $ 63.4 per barrel, in 2020 - $ 59.7 per barrel, by 2022 it is expected to decline to $ 56.3 per barrel;

- while the dollar exchange rate is projected to increase: from 64.9 rubles in 2020 to 66.2 rubles - in 2022;

- by the end of 2019, inflation is expected to decrease to 104.3%. In 2020, inflation is projected at 103.8%, in 2020 and 2021 - 104.0% each.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2019 GDP is expected to grow at the level of 101.3%. In the medium term, a gradual increase in the growth rate of the Russian economy is projected from 102.0% in 2020 to 103.2% in 2022.

The growth of investment in fixed assets in the current year is estimated at 103.1%. In 2022, according to the forecast, this indicator will be 107.0%, in 2021 - 106.3%, in 2022 - 105.8%.

In real wages, this year in Russia as a whole, growth is projected at 101.1%, next year - 102.0%, in 2021-2022 - 102.7%.